FL Dems say: Revote!

Florida Dems have repudiated the notion that they will not come out and vote this fall.  Based upon polling, many of them directly disagree with the assessment of many here that their votes should even be allowed to stand as is!

http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/st ory/437352.html


Posted on Thu, Feb. 28, 2008
Poll: Florida Dems split on revote
BY BETH REINHARD
A new poll shows Florida Democrats are torn over how to resolve the dispute over the state's early primary date, though most don't buy Hillary Clinton's argument that her victory should count toward delegates that would allow her to catch up to Barack Obama.

The Democratic National Committee said in late August that the Jan. 29 vote would not count toward delegates at the nominating convention because only four smaller states were allowed to vote that early. Clinton and Obama ceased campaigning in Florida.

The biggest chunk of the 400 voters surveyed by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research -- 28 percent -- said Florida should hold another vote so the candidates could campaign in the state and earn delegates. Such a vote would potentially end the stalemate over the nomination, as neither candidate is currently in reach of the 2,025 delegates needed to close the deal.

But most party leaders and elected officials in Florida have ruled out a do-over, arguing that it would disenfranchise the more than 1.7 million Democrats who went to the polls on Jan. 29.

The survey found that 24 percent said the national party should allow Clinton's win in Florida to count toward delegates. Another 15 percent said Florida Democrats knowingly broke national party rules and should accept the penalty, while 13 percent said Florida should send an equal number of Clinton and Obama delegates to the convention so they can participate but not influence the outcome.

Questions about Florida's primary could be moot if Clinton's losing streak extends to Ohio or Texas on Tuesday, leading to pressure on her to bow out.

The Florida poll's margin of error was 5 percent, meaning that the percentage of voters who want a revote is essentially tied with the percentage who want the Jan. 29 vote to count. But those who favor another vote, a delegate-sharing solution or the status quo outnumber those who want to reverse the national party's decision.

''I think there's some concern that the candidates didn't campaign here and they didn't get a chance to see them up close and personal so that Hillary Clinton almost won by default,'' said pollster Brad Coker.

To summarize.

   28 percent of Florida Dems want a revote
    24 percent want delegates seated based on the January primary
    15 percent think no delegates should be seated
    13 percent want an equal number of Obama and Clinton delegates seated

A clear majority don't think the votes should stand as cast.

Will this finally put to rest the tired memes of those who are stating that FL Dems ALL want their votes to be counted as cast?  No.  It won't.  And the reason is that the people who were writing those lies didn't care about things like accuracy, or facts, to begin with.

(h/t poblano at the Great Orange Satan!)



Display:


Sadly (2.00 / 1)

the bigger news is in the trail heats.  Obama trails McCain by 10, 47-37 and Clinton trails by 9, 49-40.


by fladem on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:49:57 PM EST

right... (none / 0)

as i said in 2004, florida isn't competitive.  democrats have a lot of work to do to return the state to being competitive.  this is especially true of the local democratic parties from volusia/brevard over to polk county.  most of these local parties are worse off now than they've ever been (at least in my lifetime).

i don't particularly want to see florida written off, per se, but we need to be completely realistic.  florida won't be won by a democratic presidential candidate this year, and florida democrats need to take control of their party and strengthen it from the ground up.  personally (although i'm not young), i'd recommend starting with the young democrats and college democrats on the universities, and be especially aggressive about u of f's law school.   there's lots of work to be done and outside of drawing people into campaigns, i think it will happen only when locals in all parts of the state take it upon themselves to return the state to its democratic roots.  askew and chiles offer us a rich legacy to return to...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: right... (none / 0)

The Obama campaign has built powerful grassroots organizations in places where the Democratic party machine is weak and GOTV has been non-existent in past elections. In every state he has campaigned he has come from 20 points down to blow out victories and left behind an organization that reaches into every precinct, red, blue and purple.

He has got the fund raising, the organization and the message. Florida will most definitely be in play for Obama.


by hankg on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 03:31:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i'm very familiar with barack's org & florida (none / 0)

and while i certainly appreciate your enthusiasm, florida is a very expensive media state that is not prone to instant organization.  i would certainly like to see democrats work florida (for years), but i think you overlook or underestimate the huge damage done within the democratic party in florida in the last decade or so...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 03:52:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You got it! (none / 0)

Of the states most commonly considered swing sates, Florida is definitely towards the bottom of the list when you rank them according to the possibility of a Democrat carrying the state in the GE. You can see this in the GE polls where both Clinton and Obama are getting beat by McCain. You can see it in the GE vote margins trending the wrong way (2000 > 2004). You can see it in the statewide races and in the state legislature.

Don't give up on it, don't avoid campaigning in it but don't count on it providing the electorial college votes necessary in the fall.


by kjblair2 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 03:45:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sadly (none / 0)

Obama does well in GE trial heats once he campaigns in the states under question. That's been the pattern in almost all states (with only 1 or 2 exceptions).

It's a plausible theory that the race handicap that a candidate of non-white skin color may have could be overcome (to a good degree) as voters get to know the candidate better (which is what campaigning in a state does).


Obama's Pop. Vote LEAD = 600K | Clinton & McCain = WAR Authorizers
by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:25:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

where? (none / 0)

i hail from the space coast...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:50:47 PM EST

Re: FL Dems: Revote! (none / 0)

I'll take this as an informal poll that puts Obama up 56-24 in FL right now.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:51:20 PM EST

Re: FL Dems: Revote! (2.00 / 2)

What drives me crazy about Clinton's refusal to accept a revote is that she'd most likely win the state. She'd get a delegate boost AND a news cycle boost that she desperately needs.  Instead she's going to keep trying to get them seated, which won't happen in a contested election.

This is where reaching out to the other side works better than being a fighter.  


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 01:55:31 PM EST

Re: FL Dems: Revote! (none / 0)

There's no WAY she'd win by the margin she saw earlier.  No way.  So she will fight against it as much as possible.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:00:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems: Revote! (none / 0)

I would guess that Hillary probably would win FL if a re-vote were to be done, but her margin would be much tighter and should would probably lose MI if you do the same in that state, so it would not really benefit her to go down that road.

It's irrelevant though.  The race is over by Wednesday.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:00:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems: Revote! (none / 0)

There's less than zero percent chance Hillary agrees to a caucus.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:07:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Isn't anybody paying attention? (none / 0)

Florida doesn't need to revote.

Obama is going to win Texas easily, which will force Hillary to withdraw. Once that happens, super delegates will gravitate to him.

Then there will be no problem with seating Florida and Michigan.

Stop fighting yesterday's battle. It's time to consolidate and beat McCain.


by Katman on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:07:42 PM EST

Re: Isn't anybody paying attention? (none / 0)

Oh, I agree completely.  Just wanted to point out that a tired lie is in fact a tired lie.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (2.00 / 1)

That headline is misleading. Given the margin of error in the poll, it means the Floridians, like myself, are evenly divided about a revote.

I don't mind revoting, though I would prefer my vote to count, as long as my absentee vote can count in any revote process. Which means...no caucus.

Florida will never do it. Costs too much money and the repubs won't allow it. Just seat the damn delegates.


by americanincanada on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:25:50 PM EST

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

The vast majority of Floridians don't wish to see the delegates sat.  75% of them.  You ought to admit this.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:28:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

Why the hell would I admit that when I don't know it to be true and neither do you?


by americanincanada on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:34:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

See the polling information above.  It confirms that 75% of Floridians polled do not wish to see the delegates sat currently.

Or, are you just going to ignore the polling as if it doesn't matter?  Seems to be a lot of that going around your camp lately.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

Just a ridiculous position, that we cannot judge the opinions of people based upon polling.

Not to mention that your post was grammatically terrible and really didn't make much sense at all.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 03:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

No election oversight commission, even in the most backwater third world country would give any credence to an election where voters where told before the election that their vote would not be counted and that the only vote that would count would be for a proposition which would motivate one segment of voters (homeowners) to vote and provide no reason for young people, renters, minorities and the poor to bother to show up.


by hankg on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 03:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

Wrong.

75% DO want FL delegates sat.
Just 15% thinks FL needs to be punished, those are Obama supporters who would rather see Obama win than having their neighbors' voice heared.


by rolnitzky on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 04:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

Wrong.  75% do not want the CURRENTLY ELECTED DELEGATES to be sat.  Only 24% do want the currently elected delegates to be sat.  The rest either want a re-vote or an accommodation.


by Cycloptichorn on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 06:44:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

Let's take the dead horse to the glue factory, shall we?  

First, as an Obama supporter, I freely admit that I believe in my candidate, and would attempt to rationalize, bargain, and scheme any scenario i could to assure a chance of his victory.  I cannot then hold it against the HRC supporters for doing the same.  They are a passionate, intelligent bunch...the GOPs trolls propping her up here (fratboy22, deanno, weneed3party, etc.) non-withstanding.

However, there is a dose of reality needing to be reasserted into the whole delgate debate vis a vis FL/MI.  

THERE IS NO HURRY TO RESOLVE A NON-PROBLEM AT THIS MOMENT OR AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT 3 MONTHS

A candidate WILL become the presumptive nominee with 3-4 weeks (perhaps sooner), and the other will drop out. I personally believe it will be Obama, given the momentum and nature of the race.  For HRC supporters, if you all truly believe Hillary can pull off the 20 point blowouts from now until the end of primary season, or knock Barack out of the race in 3 weeks the way many of you post...then why the rush to change the rules NOW, when a clear winnier will be revealed WELL before the convention?

Here's what to do in order to be the most fair to each candidate, the national DNC & the state parties, IMO.

1) Let the primary season play out. One candidate will withdraw. As above there is no LOGICAL & IMPARTIAL reason to change the rules in the middle of the season.  I sympathsize with HRC supporters, but there is no reason to do so when...

2) The winner of the primaries creates the Credentials Committee.  When the candidate becomes known the democratic party will allow their delegates to be seated from each state.

In this way, no one is left out.  The candidate is selected, delegates from the states whose legislatures screwed them initially get seated, and the national party avoids a royal mess.

Again, I appreciate and sympathize, but you cannot reverse-engineer a process soley designed to justify the outcome you want.  Bush did THAT in deciding to invade Iraq...we are better than that, aren't we?  


by a gunslinger on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:36:05 PM EST

400 sample for a statewide poll in FL? (2.00 / 1)

That seems like an awfully small sample.

Just sayin'

I'd also like to see the exact question wording.


by dcg2 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 02:52:51 PM EST

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

Tons of friends in Florida, and they are pissed.  They want their vote to count.

Either seat the delegates or have a revote.  Either way, Florida MUST COUNT.


by Sieglinde on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 03:03:44 PM EST

Re: FL Dems say: Revote! (none / 0)

Yes, surely this will swing the vote to HRC in the GE...


by leshrac55 on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 04:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

28 percent (none / 0)

28%

LOL!  :D

Thanks for the laugh.


by Fleaflicker on Thu Feb 28, 2008 at 04:00:01 PM EST


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